Netanyahu ahead but win uncertain in new Israel vote

March 22, Jerusalem: Israeli voters readied for a fourth election in under two years Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead in the polls but uncertain of clinching a governing majority.

The veteran leader hopes Israelis will thank him for a world-leading Covid-19 vaccination campaign, and for the diplomatic coup of normalising ties with the United Arab Emirates and three other Arab nations.

But although his right-wing Likud party is leading in the polls, it will need coalition partners to secure a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

That means Israel is looking at three possible outcomes: another coalition under Netanyahu, an ideologically divided government united only by its opposition to him, or a looming fifth election.

An unprecedented period of political deadlock has seen Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, repeatedly trying and failing to secure a stable coalition. The election Tuesday may not bring immediate certainty, said Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst and pollster.

“The question is whether there can be some sort of determining result that gives either side — the pro-Netanyahu parties or the parties that are trying to form a coalition without Netanyahu — a clear enough advantage,” she said.

“At present, it doesn’t look like either side has sufficient votes to reach a decisive answer.” – Right-wing shift – Scheindlin noted a reality that has shaped Israeli politics since the turn of the century: the electorate’s right-ward drift, especially concerning the Palestinian conflict. “Whoever becomes prime minister, the country is likely to espouse a right-wing direction,” she said. With polling projecting right-wing parties winning nearly 80 seats, Netanyahu has multiple ideological partners to form a government with.

But the divisive 71-year-old leader, who is standing trial over corruption, has alienated former allies. Former senior Likud member Gideon Saar — whose New Hope party could win up to 10 seats — has ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led government.

Former defence minister and religious nationalist Naftali Bennett has campaigned against the prime minister and not ruled out joining a coalition to oust him. Bennett’s Yamina party is therefore seen as a likely kingmaker.