Nepal’s weather: unusual pre-monsoon rains raise fears of weak monsoon amid possible ‘Super El Niño’

Kathmandu, May 22: Nepal is witnessing an unusually wet pre-monsoon season this year, with persistent rainfall recorded across much of the country since early March. Weather experts say the prolonged rain, thunderstorms and hailstorms have been driven by an unusually active western disturbance system, which typically weakens by this time of year.

Although overall rainfall figures remain close to long-term averages, meteorologists note that the pattern and duration of rainfall have been highly irregular. Forecasts suggest wet conditions may continue through the end of May before a possible shift toward drier weather in June.

The growing concern is the possible emergence of a “Super El Niño” in the Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño event often weakens the South Asian monsoon, reducing rainfall across the region. For Nepal, where agriculture heavily depends on monsoon rains, a weak monsoon could delay paddy plantation, lower crop production and increase food security risks.

Experts also warn that reduced rainfall could affect hydropower generation, tourism and the wider economy. Authorities are being urged to strengthen irrigation systems, improve water management and prepare climate-adaptive farming measures.

While the ongoing rains may appear beneficial for now, scientists caution they could signal a drier and more challenging monsoon season ahead.